tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-85932070669666638402012-01-26T06:38:39.061-06:00Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.comBlogger631100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-69954871945856022412009-05-04T22:54:00.003-05:002009-08-13T15:08:57.414-05:00

In case you hadn't noticed lately, the most substantive posts on things like SPX EPS, oil, unemployment and the like have been conspicuously absent. Real life obligations and requirements have a knack of hoovering up time.So, I'll try to resume the regular NYMEX updates and such next week maybe. And the earnings post should (hopefully) resume next Sunday. Apologies to anyone who missed it, though

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-61842614123773423392009-04-26T13:54:00.002-05:002009-04-26T13:58:20.920-05:00

Here's the week's earnings spreadsheet:Spreadsheet LinkAnother week with tons of earnings. Too many for commentary, plus I'm under-the-weather today so the spreadsheet will stand on its own again. One note: I boosted the threshold minimum on prior month option activity to 5000 to filter out some of the low-liquidity earnings reports. These types often aren't worth playing anyway since it's hard

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-38566213698429496042009-04-19T20:02:00.003-05:002009-04-19T22:12:16.935-05:00

Here's the week's earnings spreadsheet:Spreadsheet LinkNotice: Google docs is not allowing me to upload the spreadsheet for some reason. Apparently, they caught the Yahoo bug. I'll try again in an hour or so to upload it. Keep your fingers crossed!Update: Google docs is functioning again. Not sure what exactly the problem was. However, it's now late and I don't have time for a full-on analysis.

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-50648412902835642282009-04-12T19:48:00.006-05:002009-04-13T13:45:35.386-05:00

Here's the week's earnings spreadsheet:Spreadsheet LinkMonday Update: Welcome Evil Speculator visitors. Someone over there linked to this entry and all of a sudden site traffic is up. Anyhow, to read a bit of background about the spreadsheet and what it is and isn't as well as a bit of history, go here: Earnings Spreadsheet Explanation. This is a weekly thing, posted some time on Sunday (And

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-61538557095993111092009-04-05T18:25:00.003-05:002009-04-07T18:30:47.112-05:00

Here's the week's earnings spreadsheet:Spreadsheet LinkFirst, a functional note. Or rather, a disfunctional one. Yahoo is having trouble with another aspect of their finance data. This time the screener won't return data so the the ownership information is stale. Keep this in mind and check your broker for the actual short percentages.Last week I did a little summary of the week prior and since

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-29324115518643180542009-03-29T20:40:00.009-05:002009-03-29T21:14:44.306-05:00

Over at Calculated Risk there have been several posts on the auto sales numbers as that data has been released. CR's take (link to the latest post: HERE) has been that the fleet turnover ratio, currently at a record 26.8 years is unsustainable and believes that the correction in this value will take the form of an uptick in auto sales rather than a decrease in the fleet size. The comments have

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-50058270926299702982009-03-29T10:46:00.003-05:002009-03-29T11:44:52.155-05:00

Here's the week's earnings spreadsheet:Spreadsheet LinkThis is a relatively light week with only a couple of names worth paying attention to so I'm going to stick a little recap of last week's action in here. Kind of a "Keepin' Score Lite" post for those that have been reading long enough to remember those posts.Last week, I got a few things correct and few things sort of off.First the correct

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-31576324285491180462009-03-24T14:55:00.009-05:002009-03-24T15:35:17.295-05:00

I really should apologize for my utter lack of posts in the last few weeks. As noted before, it’s been a combination of unsuitable-for-posting work, lack of inspiration and real-life requirements that have reduced my output to a trickle. Plus, what’s the point of posting work that relies on a data set that might literally be worthless overnight? (See: PPIC announcement, SPX reaction to as Exhibit

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-24872459873818277352009-03-22T11:22:00.003-05:002009-03-22T12:05:56.437-05:00

Here's the week's earnings spreadsheet:Spreadsheet LinkOnce again, for the readers that are out there, I apologize for not putting up some better (or any at all, really) posts though I have been keeping up with the NYMEX charting which has been pretty interesting for those that keep up. Last week, I actually had a couple of decent selections: first, GES did jump nicely despite no forward guidance

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-55085163294053386122009-03-15T16:59:00.003-05:002009-03-15T17:29:34.617-05:00

Here's the weeks' earnings spreadsheet:Spreadsheet LinkThe lack of posting in the last week was a combination of some personal business in the earlier half, some computer problems caused by the interaction of my fat cat with the cables causing a video card issue, some non-postable work, and finally something of a lack of inspiration. Even today, I switched off my usual Sunday morning TV of Meet

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-63491219049536077312009-03-08T18:24:00.005-05:002009-03-22T19:58:07.258-05:00

Here's the weeks' earnings spreadsheet:Spreadsheet LinkThis week, I've had some personal projects so while the earnings spreadsheet is posted here, it will remain without comment - at least until later.

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-8975199549091385162009-03-04T14:14:00.007-06:002009-03-06T08:53:16.937-06:00

In a post from last December titled "Fighting the Last War," I looked at the vast differences between the initial conditions of the tech bubble recession and the one that the US entered in December of 2007. At this point, if there was any lingering doubt residing in the populace, it should be shaken.This post then, is not to re-iterate that point but rather just to provide an update of those

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-65645960865287693412009-03-01T15:29:00.006-06:002009-03-05T23:01:56.166-06:00

Here's the weeks' earnings spreadsheet:Spreadsheet LinkFrom what I saw of last week (admittedly not as much as I would have liked), it would appear that this the market is entering the "Beginning of the End" phase. It would appear that participants are slowly realizing that stocks aren't cheap, EPS forecasts really should be pessimistic, yields are garbage, and the banks are likely still hosed.As

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-42107955081692362642009-02-28T10:39:00.002-06:002009-02-28T10:41:44.112-06:00

I have been out of town for the past few days and thus without access to my normal files and set-up. The earnings spreadsheet post will be a bit tardy this Sunday and will probably appear in the evening. The NYMEX charts and Bank Failures have been updated but not much else.-Mr. Sparkle

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-34699949812082885192009-02-25T16:30:00.002-06:002009-02-25T16:30:00.552-06:00

Everyone understands: a) the value of the dollar, b) the occasional need to forget about these hard economic times, and c) humorous diversion.With those key points in mind, I present the following diversion: Bum Wines.Tangentially, this might be one of the few sectors growing in the coming year.

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-54849947011178269882009-02-24T15:04:00.004-06:002009-02-24T19:01:56.515-06:00

OK... so maybe "decade" isn't strictly accurate but it makes for a catchier headline. Unless you were so drunk that you couldn't see straight in the last two days - a prospect I must concede is entirely possible and/or warranted, all things considered - you would have seen that SPX is now at levels not seen since 1997. If you looked a little harder, you could probably have found some

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-67026821190643783492009-02-23T21:15:00.006-06:002009-02-23T21:44:01.667-06:00

Every once in a while I stumble across somebody trying to bludgeon some bit of random market data into a useful indicator. More often than not, one wonders if the person invested hours torturing the data only to have it confess to... nothing, and then they decided to just make a pretty picture out of it, gloss over the details and call it a day. Because to waste a few hours discovering something

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-24548834932836056602009-02-22T09:29:00.005-06:002009-02-28T16:00:39.862-06:00

Here's the weeks' earnings spreadsheet:Spreadsheet LinkWell, my comment last Sunday about picking a wrong week to stop drinking turned out to be a nice call. And the comment about nervousness. The remark about "apparent market optimism" was based in part on my SPX indicator, and its consistent upwards trajectory into what is "risky" territory despite what I (and a bajillion others) see as major

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-57273866028472545112009-02-18T11:30:00.005-06:002009-02-18T12:51:56.713-06:00

So in the last installment of this series, Proshares levered ETFs UCO and SCO were checked and analyzed along with a quick 'n' dirty check of their underlying benchmarks correlation with crude oil. Although one commenter felt that DJAIGCL had little correlation to NYMEX spot, I disagree and recommended he pull the source data and run the closing prices correlation for himself. (Also pay close

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-78061261592844999282009-02-15T19:43:00.005-06:002009-02-15T22:35:33.614-06:00

Here's the weeks' earnings spreadsheet:Spreadsheet LinkFour day week! Woo and stuff. Also, it's options expiration as well as termination of the NYMEX March contract on Friday. Throw in a dash of government intervention and the market players in full tantrum mode, and you've got a recipe for a week that could be incrementally more insane than the last few. I won't even begin to predict what this

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-43921144067747269422009-02-13T15:06:00.031-06:002009-03-05T10:33:44.403-06:00

... and the oven, and the dishwasher, etc.Apparently, the media is finally catching up with the S&P EPS estimates that have been out for a few days now and which I wrote about in the Kitchen Sinks & Miracles post. It would seem that this quarter is going to see everything thrown in as - amazingly - S&P has actually revised EPS for Q4/08 downward again. This is at least the 2nd update of EPS this

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-14973451909493711232009-02-12T17:01:00.003-06:002009-02-18T12:29:21.874-06:00

Another installment in the occasional series of posts about leveraged ETFs and oil. As mentioned earlier, I have discovered the bulk of my readers visit here looking for information on oil and their various ETFs, both levered and not. In an earlier long post on the ultras, I tackled the issue of volatility and compounding and their potential effects on performance of ETFs such as DXO, DTO and

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-61008553925233826462009-02-08T12:10:00.003-06:002009-02-08T17:08:46.180-06:00

Here's the weeks' earnings spreadsheet:Spreadsheet LinkOnce again this week I think I am going to reserve comment on any specific plays. The volatility and bullishness predicated on massive government intervention/bailout of the financials has shown that this market is not trading on any fundamentals but the hope of fundamental improvement as relayed to the market by the howler monkeys on CNBC.

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-18863257858045593702009-02-06T13:06:00.033-06:002009-02-20T10:13:00.694-06:00

The unemployment report from BLS came out today and it was ugly, even with the headline reporting of the seasonally adjusted numbers. What stuck out at me when I looked into the A-12 table was the difference between the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) and seasonally adjusted (SA) values. They were respectively 8.5% and 7.6%. Consider the following stories from the last part of 2008:- "November

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-38152328692217948272009-02-03T16:03:00.015-06:002009-02-03T22:53:35.552-06:00

S&P finally got around to updating their spreadsheet that shows their forecasts for EPS. Disturbingly, (at least for me), the forecast column for operating EPS had for about two weeks been replaced with the statement, "This series is under review should be posted soon." Not exactly reassuring in the current environment, particularly when it appeared beneath these bullet points:Operating set for

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-85532960973150837752009-02-01T13:26:00.003-06:002009-02-01T13:42:37.501-06:00

Here's the weeks' earnings spreadsheet:Spreadsheet LinkOnce again, a heavy week of releases. And again, I'm going to beg off of commentary and only note the big names. There is no point in speculating on what might happen in two day's time (or even two hours' time, the way things are going) so this will just have to stand as a reference.Monday: Some middling names like HUM and AFL. One company

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-16102274113931085242009-01-30T17:46:00.002-06:002009-01-30T17:55:20.912-06:00

I thought that updating the format of this blog to add a linkbar like I see on so many other (better) blogs would be a relatively trivial affair. Then I dove into the morass of sites purporting to help make your blog slicker. Ironically, these sites are so jammed with gadgets, ads and columns that they become for all purposes unusable.A couple different (and very nice) templates only served to

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-87057225204563636982009-01-27T15:29:00.024-06:002009-01-27T16:21:22.047-06:00

I've seen more than a few comments bemoaning the buyout of Wyeth by Pfizer as it will throw 8K people out of work and that these are just the sorts of jobs that the US needs to retain - i.e. "knowledge jobs" - and that this is the sort of merger that will further reduce the research and what-not done at these two companies. Although I certainly do not celebrate any job loss - particularly now - I

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-4062441811222493492009-01-25T15:22:00.012-06:002009-01-25T20:28:58.877-06:00

Over the past couple of weeks I've posted up a few charts with some vague intention/goal of updating them now and then.One of these was the SPX bottom finding chart. When I first posted it up on the 6th, it was somewhat concerning because of the implied risk for a reversal even though the indicator itself wasn't as reliable at finding tops as confirming bottoms. Here's an update of that chart to

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-23818692108527778022009-01-24T21:59:00.007-06:002009-01-25T20:33:56.549-06:00

Here's the week's earnings table worksheet.Spreadsheet LinkThere are a ton of companies releasing every day. So many that there are too many for me to run through on a detailed basis - you'll have to use the links to investigage on your own. Instead, I'll just note the big names and DJI components but won't have much opinion on them. Plus, as we saw from last week, a whole lot can happen in

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-3182101325692102272009-01-22T08:22:00.048-06:002009-01-23T07:44:19.120-06:00

When I started this blog, I never really expected to get much traffic and that basically has been the case. Still, I'm no different than most and retain some vanity and so installed the obligatory traffic tracker to see where people are coming from. I was surprised to discover that the pieces on DXO, DTO, and oil generally have been far and away the most popular. I guess I expected that after the

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-3153663171367279792009-01-21T08:24:00.009-06:002009-01-21T17:14:21.756-06:00

Remember waaaaay back on Sunday when I said that guessing where things would be on Thursday would be a fool's errand? Yesterday's stomach-churning drop in the markets is a perfect illustration of why. The landscape changed in just one afternoon. The discussion below is going to be based on mid-morning data since I have some personal things to attend to after that. Here's an updated table for

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-47433417667730745342009-01-20T15:59:00.008-06:002009-01-20T16:47:35.237-06:00

OK... did you mentally sing "funk to funky" or fill in the more somber "dust to dust"? That question sounds a lot like one of those queries on a personality test that purports to tell you something profound but the results instead read like a horoscope out of the Sunday paper. But the title was chosen deliberately.In the last few months I've read a few stories about assigning blame and generally

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-51841921859897951472009-01-18T20:12:00.014-06:002009-01-20T08:28:30.393-06:00

Interesting things in the world of crude are afoot! The spread between the February (front month) and March contracts reached a fairly impressive mark of $8.14 on Thursday before falling back to a still high $6.06/bbl. Pretty impressive. The chart to the right shows what the normal spread between these two contracts has been in the past year and a half. Up until a point in early summer of 2008,

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-80270916352846297762009-01-17T20:51:00.017-06:002009-01-18T12:03:32.367-06:00

Another Sunday, another look ahead into the earnings releases. Since I noticed an uptick in traffic to the blog this week, I’m going to take a bit of a detour here and explain for any new readers, the approach to the weekly earnings post. Previous readers can skip the next couple of paragraphs:First, the earnings report has its origins in an attempt to more easily identify better candidates for

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-91680001231519006092009-01-17T10:30:00.000-06:002009-01-17T10:30:00.662-06:00

As I read through last Sunday’s post, I realized a few things: First, that I was really wishy-washy in my statements and second, it wasn’t my best week. But there’s something to be said for mistakes and analyzing them.AA – I said: “I'm inclined to avoid this one because something about it seems "off" …Downside support would be at the SMA(30)/(50) at 10.15/10.24 respectively and below that around

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-68667739055239850742009-01-16T13:16:00.010-06:002009-01-16T15:10:35.826-06:00

"Ha ha ha ha! " Now I must admit that bringing out the Count is in response to someone who has told me I don't have any levity or humor on here. Plus, the Count seems so appropriate as our "leaders" - and general populace - seem to be in such dire need of the Count's help in the most basic of areas. This is from the Democrat's stimulus package notes:"We will provide relief to states, so they can

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-78562866903548300922009-01-11T20:53:00.010-06:002009-01-12T12:27:42.336-06:00

I've made reference to SPX yields more than once since I've started writing this blog. It's a little more difficult to tackle because I rarely see (or at least haven't found) any "dividend estimates" in the same way that there are earnings estimates. This post will hopefully go some ways to providing context about dividends and yields historically as well as possibly addressing the questions that

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-31189767279711362622009-01-11T12:06:00.008-06:002009-01-13T21:07:21.738-06:00

Another Sunday, another look ahead at the week in earnings. This week is still rather slow but there are a couple of Dow components in there so things are about to get underway in earnest. Here's the table:Spreadsheet LinkMonday: AA starts off the party this week, after the bell. They've already announced pretty drastic personnel cuts and have taken a hit this past week. Historically, AA has not

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-58278233011551305282009-01-11T10:09:00.008-06:002009-01-11T15:34:43.448-06:00

Another round of Keepin' Score, recapping last week. I would rather have had this out yesterday but assorted other tasks intruded. I'm still tweaking and adding to the scoring system I outlined in a previous post so bear with me on that count. Here we go!MOS - I said: "A favorable reaction to news would bring a 1st (and easily hit) level of about 38 and a 2nd level in the 42 area. A lousy report

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-4570503818026204782009-01-07T16:55:00.016-06:002009-01-07T20:14:29.434-06:00

A few months ago, in the comments over at Calculated Risk, Nemo started wondering just how many T-bills were being issued by the Treasury and also suggested that adding some charts to illustrate the horrors of issuance would be nice to have. I thought that was a pretty good idea too and decided that perhaps I could actually contribute something to the discourse beyond snark and bile. Over the

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-90480627034790712832009-01-06T11:06:00.012-06:002009-01-06T11:42:43.035-06:00

Anyone who knows me, or has sifted through the posts thus far on this blog, will recognize I can be a bit compulsive and have an unnatural enjoyment of working with Excel to find patterns and correlations. Sometimes this is in pursuit of confirming for myself something that I've read asserted as "common wisdom" and other times in trying to test out something I stumbled across that piqued my

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-71630105598334131332009-01-04T09:33:00.007-06:002009-01-04T10:42:56.498-06:00

Welcome to the earnings New Year! Earnings releases won't really increase in volume for a few weeks but at the least, the holiday doldrums are behind us. This week doesn't have a lot on offer to scrutinize but I'll go through them anyway. Here's the spreadsheet first.Spreadsheet LinkBefore really getting into it, a few comments. SPX has finally made it through the SMA/EMA(50), on low - but

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-43825548773305455312009-01-01T09:46:00.019-06:002009-02-19T11:30:57.809-06:00

Since I wrote my last post on oil, NYMEX crude dropped from 43.60/bbl to 35.35/bbl before recovering yesterday to close at 44.60/bbl. USO (crude oil ETF) dropped from about 36 to a low of 27.73 and finally closing yesterday at 33.10 with an intraday high of 34.87. It would seem that I was a bit premature in my statement of a bottom in crude prices forming. However, despite the drop below the Dec.

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-89499407135454881552008-12-28T20:32:00.002-06:002008-12-29T14:10:05.419-06:00

I hope everyone had a great Christmas with family and friends.So unsurprisingly, another week with no earnings. Well, not zero exactly but awfully close - CALM (Cal-Maine Foods) on Monday. That's it. Only one company made it through my filter.Enjoy the college football bowl season and New Year's Eve. I'll try to do some sort of substantive post in the next few days since there probably won't be a

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-61431658991934777012008-12-22T16:39:00.015-06:002008-12-22T20:04:13.094-06:00

In an earlier post, I had looked at some of the earnings forecast revisions that S&P had made in the past months. This time, I'm going to confine my discussion to historic PE levels and implications for the market in the future, considering the current earnings expectations.For this, I downloaded Robert Shiller's monthly S&P data set (see sources at bottom) that goes back to the dark ages of the

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-29277600559454221002008-12-22T12:00:00.001-06:002008-12-22T12:00:03.142-06:00

I just assume that very few people would read my little blog randomly. After all, I'm not well-known, don't advertise and am not an extremely frequent poster of commentary. However, I'm sure it would help the random reader to have some point of reference for a few of the phrases I use from time to time during my one weekly feature, the earnings look-ahead.One of the considerations that often pops

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-41147647355393309152008-12-21T14:01:00.003-06:002008-12-21T19:30:23.824-06:00

Suffice to say that this will be a light activity week in the trading and financial world. And the earnings release schedule is certainly reflective of it. It is so light - as you'll soon see - that it's not even worth posting up the link to the spreadsheet. This actually worked out well, since my macro sheet required some maintenance and updating with a new op-ex calendar for 2009 and so

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-45345034518573381282008-12-21T13:39:00.006-06:002008-12-21T19:31:36.322-06:00

BBY - I said: "Positive news could boost them to the 29 area..."What happened: +0.5 points for highs of 29.04 and 29.66 on 12/17 and 12/18 respectively, despite some rather grim comments. I would add that I really should change my phrasing from "positive news" to "positive reaction" since perception and reaction seems to have little connection to whatever is stated or implied.NKE -I said: "NKE is

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-36467994465435569652008-12-16T15:00:00.001-06:002008-12-16T15:00:01.072-06:00

Is there any other commodity that nearly everyone in and out of the market has an opinion on? It’s almost enough that I hesitate to add my small voice into the howl of market opinion. But that’s never really stopped me…Other websites and news outlets have already reported on vehicle miles traveled. Here are two charts showing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) both on a rolling 12 month basis and with

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-79719677071961188702008-12-16T14:16:00.003-06:002008-12-16T14:18:47.040-06:00

Population: You.Fed StatementNormally, I dislike throwaway posts, but sometimes you have to break the rules.

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-3213960693299416272008-12-14T12:30:00.000-06:002008-12-14T12:30:00.695-06:00

The set up is the same described in last week’s post with the same caveats in place. Perhaps with the added reminder that this is op-ex week and that the wrong side of any strangle will likely be immediately worthless as the IV collapses.Spreadsheet LinkMonday – No releases made it through the filter. Just as well, since it’s too late to set up for them anyway.Tuesday – ADBE, BBY, & GS. I’ll say

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-64661869652751365412008-12-13T11:48:00.006-06:002008-12-13T12:13:44.013-06:00

One thing I've been somewhat remiss about since I started commenting and venturing opinions on how a stock might behave around earnings, is keeping track of how I've actually done. This will hopefully rectify that. If you think I'm being too generous with my scorekeeping, feel free to say so. This refers back to the earnings post for 12/08.HRB - I said: "At the moment, I'm skeptical that this

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-48546332144647594912008-12-11T13:16:00.032-06:002008-12-11T16:36:22.275-06:00

Who doesn’t want to look at the current economic forecasts and want to do some prognosticating based on the last recession? After all, there's a lot of nostalgia for a recession that was practically over before it was even called out for being what it was. The NBER declared it started in March 2001 and over in November 2001. And lately, I’ve read a few market projection opinion pieces that sure

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-22417049274957616732008-12-08T21:31:00.010-06:002008-12-09T08:15:21.499-06:00

These are truly interesting times. Since October 1st the average intraday range of SPX based on percentage of the opening price has been 5.99%. For the period from 1962 until September 30th, that same value has been 1.44%. Rounding off the October 1 – present period to make a 50 session average of this intraday range finds that there has been no period since 1962 that has seen continued intraday

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-3205017934783811792008-12-07T11:34:00.024-06:002008-12-07T14:58:55.163-06:00

“The market doesn’t build rallies on toilet paper.”Sure, the more jaded and cynical will make funny comments about the Fed monetizing the ever-expanding deficit in the future. And the very darkest souls might even make references to burning money to stay warm a la Weimar days. But I still think that statement stands on merits – consumer staples is the sector that money gets parked in when it has

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-34419061126983746212008-12-07T11:00:00.003-06:002008-12-07T11:00:00.383-06:00

Time for another installment of the earnings spreadsheet...Last weeks entry into this series was rather abbreviated because A) I was trying to figure out the html bit for referencing Google Docs in frames, B) it was Thanksgiving weekend and C) pure laziness.Anyhow, here's a little more explanation: the spreadsheet grew out of an effort to capitalize on options strategies such as strangles/

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-16068667618168807972008-12-03T19:48:00.023-06:002008-12-23T14:48:47.283-06:00

S&P has been busy this last quarter.I don’t download the SP500EPSEST.xls file every day but probably every couple of weeks, I check it out to see what’s changed. Unfortunately, I haven’t been able to find any source of data that watches the forecast changes from S&P over time. (If anyone knows of one, please let me know.) Every time I’ve opened the file, the revision to Q4 earnings has been

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-57437050302258471752008-12-02T19:25:00.008-06:002008-12-06T14:25:10.023-06:00

That the march by the world's central banks to what seems to be an inevitable zero interest rate policy leaves very little room to maneuver for these institutions has not gone unnoticed or uncommented on. Many others have covered that ground already.A couple of weeks ago, I read The Great Crash of 1929 by John Galbraith. It's as light a read as possible considering the topic. There were a lot of

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-13626689193881409392008-12-01T21:51:00.011-06:002008-12-03T20:49:39.091-06:00

A project of mine that has been ongoing for the last year has been the automated collection of data for earnings releases. The spreadsheets below are the product of a macro that queries several different data sources, performs some basic calculations and references. The embedded chart below is more or less useless due to the constraints of the blog format. The actual link:http://

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-19819588034163527022008-12-01T19:26:00.002-06:002008-12-07T12:20:59.139-06:00

I've been having a running conversation with a friend of mine regarding how dire the employment situation really is. She believes that BOL statistics do not reflect the reality that so many people's unemployment benefits have expired or they have simply stopped looking for work.Just so you don’t think I’m being a cheerleader or a naïf when it comes to government statistics or the broad economy, I

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-79244842960044442862005-12-01T12:00:00.129-06:002009-05-01T17:57:03.082-05:00

This page will be updated semi-regularly - probably daily.Last Update: 5/01/09 @ 5:30PM

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8593207066966663840.post-58186894686205499892005-12-01T12:00:00.125-06:002009-04-26T15:09:27.030-05:00

Below is a table with the 2009 bank failures. It includes the estimated cost to the FDIC insurance fund, the loss as a percentage of total assets and the total deposits. This will be updated as events unfold..nobr br { display: none }Failure #Bank NameLocationFDIC Ins. Cost (est.)AssetsDeposits% Loss on Assets1National Bank of CommerceBerkeley, IL$97.1M$430.9M$402.1M22.53%2Bank of Clark

Mr. Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08485772541225558196noreply@blogger.com0