I have been out of town for the past few days and thus without access to my normal files and set-up. The earnings spreadsheet post will be a bit tardy this Sunday and will probably appear in the evening. The NYMEX charts and Bank Failures have been updated but not much else.
-Mr. Sparkle
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
In these hard economic times...
Everyone understands: a) the value of the dollar, b) the occasional need to forget about these hard economic times, and c) humorous diversion.
With those key points in mind, I present the following diversion: Bum Wines.
Tangentially, this might be one of the few sectors growing in the coming year.
With those key points in mind, I present the following diversion: Bum Wines.
Tangentially, this might be one of the few sectors growing in the coming year.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
SPX Dividends and the Lost Decade
OK... so maybe "decade" isn't strictly accurate but it makes for a catchier headline. Unless you were so drunk that you couldn't see straight in the last two days - a prospect I must concede is entirely possible and/or warranted, all things considered - you would have seen that SPX is now at levels not seen since 1997. If you looked a little harder, you could probably have found some cheerleading-type articles saying that yields have never been better, market will recover, stocks are the bomb, etc, etc. Typically, these articles come unadorned with charts and tables and this usually is a sign that there is a bit of elision going on. Or maybe I'm just too skeptical.
Here are the starting conditions: On December 31, 1996 SPX stood at 740.74 and the interest rate on the 10-year treasury pegged in at 6.54%. Let's make some gross simplifications and a few assumptions.
For the years until the treasury matures, it will throw off $50.41 in interest each year until it matures. At that point, to make this comparison easier, the accrued value is re-invested in a 2-year treasury. The interest rate on the 2-year at that point (1/1/07) was 4.8%. The total of $1274.80 would be re-invested at 4.8% simple interest. This produces a total value of $1397.19.
My targets here are those that claim that the dividends reaped in past decade would have more than made up for any capital losses and in fact the returns would still have been decent. The first question that requires answering is: Returns compared to what? The gold-standard zero-risk investment is (or at least was) US Treasuries. Since the year 1997 has been mentioned so often, I'm going to use that as my entry point here. For those that want to play along at home, you should download the SP500EPSEST.xls file from the link on the right. I'll also reference some interest rates you can find in the St. Louis Fed database also linked on the right.
Here are the starting conditions: On December 31, 1996 SPX stood at 740.74 and the interest rate on the 10-year treasury pegged in at 6.54%. Let's make some gross simplifications and a few assumptions.
1) Purchase of 1 share of SPX for 740.74
2) Purchase of 740.74 worth of 10-year treasury yielding 6.54%
3) Dividend re-investment in SPX each quarter.
This last point is done because I believe that most people - or at least most buy-and-holders - probably just do the DRIP approach with their mutual funds. So now we have two plans: SPX vs. Treasury.
So at the end of the Q1/1997, the dividends were $3.61 and SPX was 757.12. This means that 0.0048 shares were acquired for a new total of 1.0048. This was then used to acquire dividends in Q2/1997, which were paid at a rate of $3.87/share which translates to $3.89 in dividends to reinvest and acquire another 0.0044 shares with SPX at 885.14 to bring the total owned to 1.0092. And on and on and on up until today, when you would own 1.2233 shares at SPX closing value of 773.14 for a total value of $945.82.
For the years until the treasury matures, it will throw off $50.41 in interest each year until it matures. At that point, to make this comparison easier, the accrued value is re-invested in a 2-year treasury. The interest rate on the 2-year at that point (1/1/07) was 4.8%. The total of $1274.80 would be re-invested at 4.8% simple interest. This produces a total value of $1397.19.Hmm... so I'm clearly not getting something here. All the risk of the stock market for a lower return? Now, I was not educated in finance and perhaps my math is wrong but I'm pretty sure that the risk-reward equation is supposed to reward risk with a higher return. Excel's INTRATE function produces a rate of 2.31% on the SPX investment when the same formula returns a rate of 7.38% for the Treasury plan. And to add insult to injury, the SPX investment plan doesn't even keep up with CPI inflation. Don't believe me? Click through to BLS CPI Inflation Calculator and find out for yourself. Entering in that $740.74 investment in 1997 dollars produces a value of... $974.47 in 2009 dollars for a real-dollar LOSS. Granted, the real-dollar gain in the Treasury plan isn't glamorous but at least it's a positive number.
Now, the current rates on the 1o-year are an atrocious 2.799%, so the Treasury plan isn't exactly a viable strategy going forward from here. At least barring a wave of deflation that I'm thinking most of us don't even want to ponder. However, I am extremely skeptical of people using the Q4 dividends and the tanked SPX value and producing yields in the 3's. How on earth can you make the assumption that dividends will not fall further? Have balance sheets suddenly gotten stronger in the last two months? Looking at the past work and charts on dividends that I put up, it's pretty clear that it takes quite a bit of EPS degradation to knock dividends down a significant amount. But, look close at some of the charts of reported and operating EPS on this blog and you'll see that the forecasted EPS levels for 2009 look more like 2002 levels for reported EPS and 2005 for operating EPS. A quick look at the dividends from that era show a large difference. I'm not sure this gets bridged but I'm not exactly optimistic that the current yield will be maintained.
One can argue that these are anomalous times and you'll see all sorts of people who want you to invest your money through their service telling you that this is a great time to buy stocks at their brokerage. Just remember, there are real pitfalls to the buy/hold/re-invest strategy and the simple little chart should be plenty to illustrate that.
Monday, February 23, 2009
52-Week New High/New Low
Every once in a while I stumble across somebody trying to bludgeon some bit of random market data into a useful indicator. More often than not, one wonders if the person invested hours torturing the data only to have it confess to... nothing, and then they decided to just make a pretty picture out of it, gloss over the details and call it a day. Because to waste a few hours discovering something doesn't work would be embarrassing or something.
Which isn't really true at all. Discovering something has no utility is a valid result and should be reported. Trying to tart up a chart and make it sing and dance is basically a Type I error. I've always been slightly annoyed that scientists are only concerned with publishing positive results. As though the experiments that were dead-ends were invalid. All information contributes to our total knowledge, and this includes what doesn't work as well as what does. But enough soap-boxing...
At any rate, I present the following two pieces of market trivia: the charts of the 52-week New Highs and New Lows against SPX. I've never found them to be particularly useful as a predictor of anything though I have seen a few attempts to do so in a chart (no numbers/correlation, natch) and quite often the counts appear in some random market commentary that always seems to me to smack of a certain "insiderism" for lack of a better term. Basically, a random piece of trivia that an outsider would have no reason to know.
So here are some Fun Facts about these charts. Since October 2008, there have never been more than 20 new 52-week highs and in fact, since January no day has seen more than 15. In contrast, well look at the new 52-week low chart. The November low area is an abject disaster. Since the New Year, the average number of new 52-week highs has been 6.23 and new lows has been 98.97. Ouch. I've never had much luck getting these charts to tell me much of anything though to be honest, my effort has been cursory at best after my initial attempts. Still, I bring these up because I read a bullish note today that pointed out that the current number of lows is below the November timeframe. To me, that's a lot like saying the patient won't lose much more blood through a cut on the arm because the blood pressure has fallen too precipitously due to a sucking chest wound. But I've never been accused of being a sunny person.
Other details: this is the NASDAQ 52-week high/low and not the NYSE. NYSE has too many preferred shares and other odd issues that tend to make a mess of the numbers and are too annoying to deal with. If anyone has some alternative ideas, I'd be interested to hear them.
Which isn't really true at all. Discovering something has no utility is a valid result and should be reported. Trying to tart up a chart and make it sing and dance is basically a Type I error. I've always been slightly annoyed that scientists are only concerned with publishing positive results. As though the experiments that were dead-ends were invalid. All information contributes to our total knowledge, and this includes what doesn't work as well as what does. But enough soap-boxing...
At any rate, I present the following two pieces of market trivia: the charts of the 52-week New Highs and New Lows against SPX. I've never found them to be particularly useful as a predictor of anything though I have seen a few attempts to do so in a chart (no numbers/correlation, natch) and quite often the counts appear in some random market commentary that always seems to me to smack of a certain "insiderism" for lack of a better term. Basically, a random piece of trivia that an outsider would have no reason to know.
So here are some Fun Facts about these charts. Since October 2008, there have never been more than 20 new 52-week highs and in fact, since January no day has seen more than 15. In contrast, well look at the new 52-week low chart. The November low area is an abject disaster. Since the New Year, the average number of new 52-week highs has been 6.23 and new lows has been 98.97. Ouch. I've never had much luck getting these charts to tell me much of anything though to be honest, my effort has been cursory at best after my initial attempts. Still, I bring these up because I read a bullish note today that pointed out that the current number of lows is below the November timeframe. To me, that's a lot like saying the patient won't lose much more blood through a cut on the arm because the blood pressure has fallen too precipitously due to a sucking chest wound. But I've never been accused of being a sunny person.Other details: this is the NASDAQ 52-week high/low and not the NYSE. NYSE has too many preferred shares and other odd issues that tend to make a mess of the numbers and are too annoying to deal with. If anyone has some alternative ideas, I'd be interested to hear them.
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Earnings Week of 2/23
Here's the weeks' earnings spreadsheet:
Spreadsheet Link
Well, my comment last Sunday about picking a wrong week to stop drinking turned out to be a nice call. And the comment about nervousness. The remark about "apparent market optimism" was based in part on my SPX indicator, and its consistent upwards trajectory into what is "risky" territory despite what I (and a bajillion others) see as major fundamental deterioration. This trend has continued and continues to puzzle me. My own 2 cent analysis on SPX is that there is going to be a more significant test of the November lows. Yes, SPX got close to it on Friday but not with any great volume or duration. The market is still in a state of floating free from reality and totally subject to the vagaries of the programming schedule of CNBC and misty outlines of bank rescue programs that totally aren't nationalization even though we can't tell you what. Good times. Moving on to the earnings announcements...
Monday: Cons. staple CPB and high-end retailer JWN. CPB is sitting on the lower Bollinger on the daily chart with all the major MAs (except 200) tangled up in the 29.50-30.25 range. The options are pricing in a move below the 52-week low which seems a bit pessimistic for a company like this, even in such an environment. On the flipside, JWN has a high short interest and sells little of any necessity to anyone. It's resting more or less on its last support until 10.25 area and then the November lows. I'll be curious to hear what they have to say about the last quarter and looking ahead.
Tuesday: A whole slew of large and interesting names. Speculative solar play: FSLR. HD announces, go back and read last week's post on earnings with reference to LOW. Nearly-bankrupt department store M. My own 2 cent analysis of M goes like this: a few years ago, M looked around the competitive landscape and decided that they were the weak hand in that space. However, credit was cheap and so they decided to purchase most of their competition. Now fallen are Foley's, Marshall Field's (a reason I detest Macy's), and a handful of others. But, as a result M is now saddled with tons of debt, regions full of customers with no particular affection for the brand, and contracting consumer spending. Contrast this with Best Buy, which now has one less competitor courtesy of CC going bankrupt. And they didn't have to spend a penny to do it! Market share growth at a great price. Moving on: TGT, VNO, and WYNN. If I remember correctly, VNO is the 2nd largest component in DJUSRE, which moves SRS. WYNN... well, it's just been a funny stock to watch in the last few months.
Wednesday: Budget retailer DLTR. Last time out for them, I said this is an environment they should excel in. EPS estimates have not changed for them in the past quarter. Retailer LTD has been hit and I believe is closing stores. Last quarter, CRM moved 20%. TRLG has had occasional quarters of large movement. Finally, GRMN deserves a mention to see how many people bought their gadgets at Christmas.
Thursday: Tech heavyweight DELL. Anecdotally, the Dell catalog/mailers have had some smoking deals lately. On a more data-driven note, computing equipment was one of the sectors that notched a double-digit drop on the last PPI report even as it showed moderate price inflation. DECK, producer of Uggs. KSS interests me not so much as a play but for what they say. Same goes for GPS, particularly in regard to any further store closing plans. They had announced some last time out and any further contraction there is going to really pound the mall-owners. See GGP for exhibit 1 on how that group has been getting pinched. Finally, SWY just to hear their views on basic staple spending and potential shifts in patterns.
Friday: Speculative football SNDA. That's about it.
There are lots of companies out this week with high short interest and digging into the spreadsheet will help find them. Again though, I've reserved specific comments for the same reason as the last few - it is near-impossible to guess where the market will be in 3 hours, never mind 3 days. BAC and C are still looming large despite Ken Lewis' protestations that all is well. Timmy Geithner's stress tests will supposedly get underway, though honestly, I kind of expect this to be an exercise in technical reassurance, with all the detail of a pre-indictment Bernie Madoff audit. The notion that these guys really don't know, after a year of intense stress, if BAC/C/whoever could topple is either laughable or frightening. Hence my inclination to view this as a "show-trial" except instead of the firing squad at the end, the goal is to pump the markets. We shall see...
Spreadsheet Link
Well, my comment last Sunday about picking a wrong week to stop drinking turned out to be a nice call. And the comment about nervousness. The remark about "apparent market optimism" was based in part on my SPX indicator, and its consistent upwards trajectory into what is "risky" territory despite what I (and a bajillion others) see as major fundamental deterioration. This trend has continued and continues to puzzle me. My own 2 cent analysis on SPX is that there is going to be a more significant test of the November lows. Yes, SPX got close to it on Friday but not with any great volume or duration. The market is still in a state of floating free from reality and totally subject to the vagaries of the programming schedule of CNBC and misty outlines of bank rescue programs that totally aren't nationalization even though we can't tell you what. Good times. Moving on to the earnings announcements...
Monday: Cons. staple CPB and high-end retailer JWN. CPB is sitting on the lower Bollinger on the daily chart with all the major MAs (except 200) tangled up in the 29.50-30.25 range. The options are pricing in a move below the 52-week low which seems a bit pessimistic for a company like this, even in such an environment. On the flipside, JWN has a high short interest and sells little of any necessity to anyone. It's resting more or less on its last support until 10.25 area and then the November lows. I'll be curious to hear what they have to say about the last quarter and looking ahead.
Tuesday: A whole slew of large and interesting names. Speculative solar play: FSLR. HD announces, go back and read last week's post on earnings with reference to LOW. Nearly-bankrupt department store M. My own 2 cent analysis of M goes like this: a few years ago, M looked around the competitive landscape and decided that they were the weak hand in that space. However, credit was cheap and so they decided to purchase most of their competition. Now fallen are Foley's, Marshall Field's (a reason I detest Macy's), and a handful of others. But, as a result M is now saddled with tons of debt, regions full of customers with no particular affection for the brand, and contracting consumer spending. Contrast this with Best Buy, which now has one less competitor courtesy of CC going bankrupt. And they didn't have to spend a penny to do it! Market share growth at a great price. Moving on: TGT, VNO, and WYNN. If I remember correctly, VNO is the 2nd largest component in DJUSRE, which moves SRS. WYNN... well, it's just been a funny stock to watch in the last few months.
Wednesday: Budget retailer DLTR. Last time out for them, I said this is an environment they should excel in. EPS estimates have not changed for them in the past quarter. Retailer LTD has been hit and I believe is closing stores. Last quarter, CRM moved 20%. TRLG has had occasional quarters of large movement. Finally, GRMN deserves a mention to see how many people bought their gadgets at Christmas.
Thursday: Tech heavyweight DELL. Anecdotally, the Dell catalog/mailers have had some smoking deals lately. On a more data-driven note, computing equipment was one of the sectors that notched a double-digit drop on the last PPI report even as it showed moderate price inflation. DECK, producer of Uggs. KSS interests me not so much as a play but for what they say. Same goes for GPS, particularly in regard to any further store closing plans. They had announced some last time out and any further contraction there is going to really pound the mall-owners. See GGP for exhibit 1 on how that group has been getting pinched. Finally, SWY just to hear their views on basic staple spending and potential shifts in patterns.
Friday: Speculative football SNDA. That's about it.
There are lots of companies out this week with high short interest and digging into the spreadsheet will help find them. Again though, I've reserved specific comments for the same reason as the last few - it is near-impossible to guess where the market will be in 3 hours, never mind 3 days. BAC and C are still looming large despite Ken Lewis' protestations that all is well. Timmy Geithner's stress tests will supposedly get underway, though honestly, I kind of expect this to be an exercise in technical reassurance, with all the detail of a pre-indictment Bernie Madoff audit. The notion that these guys really don't know, after a year of intense stress, if BAC/C/whoever could topple is either laughable or frightening. Hence my inclination to view this as a "show-trial" except instead of the firing squad at the end, the goal is to pump the markets. We shall see...
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Crude Indices and DXO/DTO
So in the last installment of this series, Proshares levered ETFs UCO and SCO were checked and analyzed along with a quick 'n' dirty check of their underlying benchmarks correlation with crude oil. Although one commenter felt that DJAIGCL had little correlation to NYMEX spot, I disagree and recommended he pull the source data and run the closing prices correlation for himself. (Also pay close attention to what I say and more importantly, what I don't say.) Anyhow, for purposes here, I'm going to assume you grant me the earlier statement that DBOLIX actually is reasonably correlated to crude prices. And really, it doesn't matter all that much since this analysis is to see how well the levered ETFs track relative to their respective benchmarks.
While DXO open/close data is available going back to 6/23/08, this data is only available for DBOLIX back to 10/27/08 so the charts here are confined to that date up to 2/10/09. During this period DXO's average track error was -0.71% and the average absolute track error was 3.26%. This compares to UCO's values of -0.16% and 3.62%, respectively. There were 28 positive track errors against 44 negative ones during this period, so one could argue there is a bias for underperforming the +2x intraday percentage expectations. Finally, the closing price correlation between DXO and DBOLIX is 0.987 and the correlation of DXO's intraday percent change with tracking error is 0.01.
As for DTO, the same period applies. During this period DTO's average track error was 1.14% and the average absolute track error was 3.8%. This compares to SCO's values of -0.312% and 3.52%, respectively. There were 41 positive track errors against 31 negative errors during this time. The closing price correlation of DTO and DBOLIX was -0.89 and the correlation of DTO intraday percent change with tracking error is 0.017.
While DXO open/close data is available going back to 6/23/08, this data is only available for DBOLIX back to 10/27/08 so the charts here are confined to that date up to 2/10/09. During this period DXO's average track error was -0.71% and the average absolute track error was 3.26%. This compares to UCO's values of -0.16% and 3.62%, respectively. There were 28 positive track errors against 44 negative ones during this period, so one could argue there is a bias for underperforming the +2x intraday percentage expectations. Finally, the closing price correlation between DXO and DBOLIX is 0.987 and the correlation of DXO's intraday percent change with tracking error is 0.01.
As for DTO, the same period applies. During this period DTO's average track error was 1.14% and the average absolute track error was 3.8%. This compares to SCO's values of -0.312% and 3.52%, respectively. There were 41 positive track errors against 31 negative errors during this time. The closing price correlation of DTO and DBOLIX was -0.89 and the correlation of DTO intraday percent change with tracking error is 0.017. On balance, it seems that DXO/DTO have more difficulties in tracking their benchmark and target performance than UCO/SCO. Part of the explanation for this could lie in the fact that DXO/DTO are ETNs sponsored by Deutsche Bank as opposed to ETFs. The ETN suffers from risk exposure both to the underlying commodity and the sponsoring institution and DB has of late been making news for fairly negative reasons. Here's a choice quote from the prospectus: "The PowerShares DB Crude Oil ETNs are riskier than ordinary unsecured debt securities and have no principal protection." On a more technical point, the ETN is exposed to contango - though some attempt is apparently made to minimize impact - and if you check the NYMEX charts with any regularity, you've seen how large the price spreads have become. An aside: USO also suffers from the same contango problems and as long as this condition exists and if oil stays relatively flat in the front month, there will be steady erosion as the contracts are rolled.
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Earnings Week of 2/16
Here's the weeks' earnings spreadsheet:
Spreadsheet Link
Four day week! Woo and stuff. Also, it's options expiration as well as termination of the NYMEX March contract on Friday. Throw in a dash of government intervention and the market players in full tantrum mode, and you've got a recipe for a week that could be incrementally more insane than the last few. I won't even begin to predict what this week might hold.
A couple of random comments. First, Brent and WTI have diverged far more than the last time I noted. The gap on the 13th was $7.12/bbl. Secondly, I have a nervous feeling growing but I can't point to anything specific. It's just the accumulation of stories like the ones about China wanting guarantees the US won't go the de facto default via devaluation, strength in gold, Japan going south fast, apparent market optimism, and this unflagging desire by every single person with power to maintain - or a most, incrementally adjust - the current state of affairs. So it has ever been to be sure, but somewhere I wonder if there is still the possibility for a shock to the system, Götterdämmerung, whatever.
Anyhow, on a less soap-boxy note, despite the market having Monday off I figured I would post up the earnings spreadsheets for review. I'm still suffering from the annoying conditional formatting problem on Google docs so if anyone has any suggestions, I would appreciate it. It's unlikely I'll have specific plays for this week (again) - the market is simply too choppy and there is every incentive for companies to intentionally tank their earnings by writing off every last bit that even has a whiff of failure is huge. (As the last week's post should amply reveal.)
Tuesday: Lots of big energy names: natty-gasser CHK, Norwegian STO, refiner HOC, deepwater RIG, and UPL. And don't forget inventories are on Thursday, just to keep you on your toes. I like RIG, and have long liked them. It will be very interesting to hear if any of their contracted work is being cancelled. As for the rest, AMED has a gigantic 50% short interest on a float of 26.5M shares and 33 days to cover. And then outlet-center propietor SKT checks in with a 34.17% short interest on 24M shares though in this case it's only about 9 days to cover. SKT is sitting about 3.50 above the 52-week low. Malls should start getting pinched as more and more retailers fail after lousy holiday numbers, but I'm not sure far that will extend to SKT's business. Bad reaction should send them to 26 or high 25 area. Finally, DJI component WMT also has earnings. They are oddly just 0.25 above their 52-week low of 46.25 which was achieved on Feb 2. A run back to 50 could be seen if their forecast is clear and they say something not-awful. Otherwise, it looks like 43 or so.
Wednesday: Lots of companies so I'll just pick out the big names that will get attention. Chinese internet darling, BIDU. Farm equipment DE. Tech giant HPQ. Oil-services OII. Speculative solar play o' the day: STP. There are several companies with high short interests on this day, but again, a lot can happen in one session so just use the data as a guide.
Thursday: Another heavy day. Several names from across the energy spectrum: APA, BUCY (coal), NBL, PQ, big refiner TSO, WMB, and XTO. Several metal players like EGO, GG, RIO, NEM and RS. Once again, many names have high short interest and low float that could make them interesting if good set-ups can be found.
Friday: JCP might shed some light on the lower-tier department store outlook. And LOW - there was some interesting info at Calculated Risk regarding the spending in home-improvement as compared to investment in single family structures. Go read it.
So that's it for the week. If you had this week staked out on the calendar to quit drinking - you might want to rethink that plan.
Spreadsheet Link
Four day week! Woo and stuff. Also, it's options expiration as well as termination of the NYMEX March contract on Friday. Throw in a dash of government intervention and the market players in full tantrum mode, and you've got a recipe for a week that could be incrementally more insane than the last few. I won't even begin to predict what this week might hold.
A couple of random comments. First, Brent and WTI have diverged far more than the last time I noted. The gap on the 13th was $7.12/bbl. Secondly, I have a nervous feeling growing but I can't point to anything specific. It's just the accumulation of stories like the ones about China wanting guarantees the US won't go the de facto default via devaluation, strength in gold, Japan going south fast, apparent market optimism, and this unflagging desire by every single person with power to maintain - or a most, incrementally adjust - the current state of affairs. So it has ever been to be sure, but somewhere I wonder if there is still the possibility for a shock to the system, Götterdämmerung, whatever.
Anyhow, on a less soap-boxy note, despite the market having Monday off I figured I would post up the earnings spreadsheets for review. I'm still suffering from the annoying conditional formatting problem on Google docs so if anyone has any suggestions, I would appreciate it. It's unlikely I'll have specific plays for this week (again) - the market is simply too choppy and there is every incentive for companies to intentionally tank their earnings by writing off every last bit that even has a whiff of failure is huge. (As the last week's post should amply reveal.)
Tuesday: Lots of big energy names: natty-gasser CHK, Norwegian STO, refiner HOC, deepwater RIG, and UPL. And don't forget inventories are on Thursday, just to keep you on your toes. I like RIG, and have long liked them. It will be very interesting to hear if any of their contracted work is being cancelled. As for the rest, AMED has a gigantic 50% short interest on a float of 26.5M shares and 33 days to cover. And then outlet-center propietor SKT checks in with a 34.17% short interest on 24M shares though in this case it's only about 9 days to cover. SKT is sitting about 3.50 above the 52-week low. Malls should start getting pinched as more and more retailers fail after lousy holiday numbers, but I'm not sure far that will extend to SKT's business. Bad reaction should send them to 26 or high 25 area. Finally, DJI component WMT also has earnings. They are oddly just 0.25 above their 52-week low of 46.25 which was achieved on Feb 2. A run back to 50 could be seen if their forecast is clear and they say something not-awful. Otherwise, it looks like 43 or so.
Wednesday: Lots of companies so I'll just pick out the big names that will get attention. Chinese internet darling, BIDU. Farm equipment DE. Tech giant HPQ. Oil-services OII. Speculative solar play o' the day: STP. There are several companies with high short interests on this day, but again, a lot can happen in one session so just use the data as a guide.
Thursday: Another heavy day. Several names from across the energy spectrum: APA, BUCY (coal), NBL, PQ, big refiner TSO, WMB, and XTO. Several metal players like EGO, GG, RIO, NEM and RS. Once again, many names have high short interest and low float that could make them interesting if good set-ups can be found.
Friday: JCP might shed some light on the lower-tier department store outlook. And LOW - there was some interesting info at Calculated Risk regarding the spending in home-improvement as compared to investment in single family structures. Go read it.
So that's it for the week. If you had this week staked out on the calendar to quit drinking - you might want to rethink that plan.
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