Sunday, March 15, 2009

Earnings Week of 3/16

Here's the weeks' earnings spreadsheet:

Spreadsheet Link

The lack of posting in the last week was a combination of some personal business in the earlier half, some computer problems caused by the interaction of my fat cat with the cables causing a video card issue, some non-postable work, and finally something of a lack of inspiration. Even today, I switched off my usual Sunday morning TV of Meet the Press and This Week because I couldn't tolerate the moronic questions of David Gregory, the obfuscation of Larry Summers, and the pathetic political maneuverings of Mitch McConnell. Maybe I missed something - but I doubt it. Each week the actors are different, but the lines are all the same.

Anyhow, this could be an interesting week with options expiration on Friday and the rally on Vikram "Bandit" Pandit's utterance that C is profitable if you ignore all the other write-offs and neglect to consider they are basically being given free money with which to play. But that's what happens when the market goes in a virtual straight-line down and gets oversold. It doesn't take much substantive to spark a fierce rally. This might be the topic of a post as the EPS forecast and multiple gets revisited in light of the SPX movement. But onto the main topic, of which there is little to discuss:

Monday: SINA has been a nice speculative bouncer in the past, though not necessarily at earnings time. I don't know much about the other two releases - FRPT & MDVN.

Tuesday: ADBE & GES. It's hard to imagine a consumer discretionary rally a whole lot more but then again... I must admit I find this one tempting to play weighted to the long side. I've got no solid justification for this though. ADBE, eh. Usually not a big mover.

Wednesday: Restaurant player DRI (owner of Red Lobster/Olive Garden), consumer staple GIS, consumer discretionary NKE and tech heavyweight, ORCL. DRI has a bullish looking chart since December and is just under a resistance/breakout point at 30. Otherwise, I guess 24 is the downside target. GIS has been brutalized since hitting a 52-week high a couple quarters back, though it popped up a bit in the last couple of sessions. Only DRI is really interesting to me though as a play. NKE/ORCL are important for what they say.

Thursday: DFS, FDX, ROST, and PLCE. FDX is often quite an important source of data on direction of the economy and so are important to listen to. ROST is like the Dollar Store - they should be thriving in an environment like this. At the moment, share price is just a hair under the SMA(200) and looks like it wants an excuse to go higher. PLCE... are there really enough yuppies to keep buying outfits from this place instead of TGT? It's been occasionally volatile in the past and several of the last quarters have seen moves larger than what the options are pricing in so it might be one to keep an eye on as Thursday approaches.

Friday: Nothing but op-ex. Stay safe!