Saturday, December 13, 2008

Keepin' Score (12/08/08)

One thing I've been somewhat remiss about since I started commenting and venturing opinions on how a stock might behave around earnings, is keeping track of how I've actually done. This will hopefully rectify that. If you think I'm being too generous with my scorekeeping, feel free to say so. This refers back to the earnings post for 12/08.

I said: "At the moment, I'm skeptical that this could break through those barriers [20.75 & 21.59] significantly. On the downside, the channel bottom is around 15.50-15.75. Odds would seem to be in favor of some downward movement here."
What happened: +1 point for not closing above 20.75 until Friday but -1 point for expectations of downward movement. Total = 0

I said: "Upside limit here would probably be 129 area (the late Oct high) and the low barrier appears to be around 100 by options expiration."
What happened: +0.5 point for not closing above 129 until Friday.

I said: "the B/E % moves are a bit high considering history. (+27.9%/-19.37%). There is a reasonable chance of being able to leg into a strangle position with much better prices based on the assumption of continued upward price movement in the first part of the week. Calls on Monday, puts later on Wednesday - maybe around the 13 area if you're lucky."
What happened: This is tougher to score. +1 for the leg in strangle/straddle idea even though the week high was only 11.88. -0.5 points for not thinking that the strangle would be profitable based on the break-even numbers from Sunday. LULU closed Thursday at 7.08, over 30% off and far below the break even share price of 8.70. Total: +0.5.

Aggregate Total = +0.5 points.