Sunday, February 15, 2009

Earnings Week of 2/16

Here's the weeks' earnings spreadsheet:

Spreadsheet Link

Four day week! Woo and stuff. Also, it's options expiration as well as termination of the NYMEX March contract on Friday. Throw in a dash of government intervention and the market players in full tantrum mode, and you've got a recipe for a week that could be incrementally more insane than the last few. I won't even begin to predict what this week might hold.

A couple of random comments. First, Brent and WTI have diverged far more than the last time I noted. The gap on the 13th was $7.12/bbl. Secondly, I have a nervous feeling growing but I can't point to anything specific. It's just the accumulation of stories like the ones about China wanting guarantees the US won't go the de facto default via devaluation, strength in gold, Japan going south fast, apparent market optimism, and this unflagging desire by every single person with power to maintain - or a most, incrementally adjust - the current state of affairs. So it has ever been to be sure, but somewhere I wonder if there is still the possibility for a shock to the system, Götterdämmerung, whatever.

Anyhow, on a less soap-boxy note, despite the market having Monday off I figured I would post up the earnings spreadsheets for review. I'm still suffering from the annoying conditional formatting problem on Google docs so if anyone has any suggestions, I would appreciate it. It's unlikely I'll have specific plays for this week (again) - the market is simply too choppy and there is every incentive for companies to intentionally tank their earnings by writing off every last bit that even has a whiff of failure is huge. (As the last week's post should amply reveal.)

Tuesday: Lots of big energy names: natty-gasser CHK, Norwegian STO, refiner HOC, deepwater RIG, and UPL. And don't forget inventories are on Thursday, just to keep you on your toes. I like RIG, and have long liked them. It will be very interesting to hear if any of their contracted work is being cancelled. As for the rest, AMED has a gigantic 50% short interest on a float of 26.5M shares and 33 days to cover. And then outlet-center propietor SKT checks in with a 34.17% short interest on 24M shares though in this case it's only about 9 days to cover. SKT is sitting about 3.50 above the 52-week low. Malls should start getting pinched as more and more retailers fail after lousy holiday numbers, but I'm not sure far that will extend to SKT's business. Bad reaction should send them to 26 or high 25 area. Finally, DJI component WMT also has earnings. They are oddly just 0.25 above their 52-week low of 46.25 which was achieved on Feb 2. A run back to 50 could be seen if their forecast is clear and they say something not-awful. Otherwise, it looks like 43 or so.

Wednesday: Lots of companies so I'll just pick out the big names that will get attention. Chinese internet darling, BIDU. Farm equipment DE. Tech giant HPQ. Oil-services OII. Speculative solar play o' the day: STP. There are several companies with high short interests on this day, but again, a lot can happen in one session so just use the data as a guide.

Thursday: Another heavy day. Several names from across the energy spectrum: APA, BUCY (coal), NBL, PQ, big refiner TSO, WMB, and XTO. Several metal players like EGO, GG, RIO, NEM and RS. Once again, many names have high short interest and low float that could make them interesting if good set-ups can be found.

Friday: JCP might shed some light on the lower-tier department store outlook. And LOW - there was some interesting info at Calculated Risk regarding the spending in home-improvement as compared to investment in single family structures. Go read it.

So that's it for the week. If you had this week staked out on the calendar to quit drinking - you might want to rethink that plan.